* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 30 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 30 30 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 29 27 23 20 20 19 20 26 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 33 36 39 37 42 35 33 19 43 78 45 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 9 5 3 0 -1 -2 0 4 -7 -1 11 SHEAR DIR 266 253 246 244 239 222 240 240 240 202 218 224 251 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.5 25.6 18.0 10.1 8.1 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 155 149 142 135 134 120 113 82 72 68 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 140 133 127 120 120 106 99 79 70 67 70 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -54.1 -54.7 -55.5 -55.0 -54.9 -52.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 66 67 63 54 44 50 64 73 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 13 13 15 13 11 9 8 13 850 MB ENV VOR 65 79 87 74 65 51 35 34 164 252 237 163 200 200 MB DIV 75 82 67 53 50 80 64 34 85 146 152 43 -30 700-850 TADV 16 22 15 19 17 7 5 11 -10 -35 244 99 65 LAND (KM) 399 464 557 656 778 1019 866 523 334 98 -58 -628 -717 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.4 25.1 26.1 28.4 30.8 33.2 35.6 40.9 49.1 52.4 47.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.8 69.0 68.0 67.3 66.8 66.7 68.4 70.9 72.2 69.9 68.8 75.6 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 12 12 16 15 17 38 35 23 31 HEAT CONTENT 74 77 46 29 18 4 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -14. -19. -25. -37. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -17. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.3 69.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 46.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 32 30 30 30 28 22 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 28 28 28 26 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 24 24 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT