* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 33 33 32 30 28 26 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 33 33 32 30 28 26 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 29 27 22 20 18 17 17 22 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 41 34 38 41 38 43 43 38 31 73 105 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 7 3 -1 -3 0 -5 0 -6 -24 -1 SHEAR DIR 271 268 255 244 245 227 241 242 248 236 229 222 224 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.8 20.5 11.6 7.7 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 151 142 129 129 124 125 87 73 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 150 140 130 116 114 110 111 81 71 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -56.6 -56.5 -55.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 70 72 72 73 62 55 46 53 77 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 15 15 15 14 13 13 15 14 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 77 73 60 31 5 16 16 178 167 109 89 200 MB DIV 49 77 85 71 68 102 63 83 43 122 150 111 50 700-850 TADV 17 21 22 9 15 5 1 13 23 34 166 261 6 LAND (KM) 306 354 469 606 724 1015 1193 929 639 214 -190 -337 -805 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.4 24.1 25.0 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.5 40.0 47.0 52.6 53.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 69.1 67.7 66.4 65.4 64.3 64.9 66.5 68.8 69.2 67.7 69.3 77.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 13 13 13 13 16 19 29 36 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 73 82 60 28 14 3 2 12 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -31. -42. -60. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -29. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 70.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 60.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 33 33 32 30 28 26 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT