* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 29 29 30 27 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 31 29 29 30 27 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 42 41 36 40 40 43 41 43 27 41 92 107 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 6 4 0 -1 -4 -4 0 0 -16 -30 SHEAR DIR 263 265 263 249 241 239 230 246 244 261 221 232 224 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.9 28.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.3 26.2 15.4 10.2 7.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 151 143 130 128 128 119 119 76 70 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 151 140 130 116 113 114 105 106 73 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -56.1 -56.5 -57.1 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 68 70 70 69 63 55 49 43 63 75 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 15 16 15 14 13 15 17 15 14 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 56 60 74 72 38 18 13 25 94 153 120 64 200 MB DIV 61 55 70 85 71 63 81 76 40 68 110 123 124 700-850 TADV 3 16 19 21 11 6 3 3 16 18 49 179 245 LAND (KM) 323 381 471 602 722 967 1189 972 663 379 46 -18 -390 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.6 24.3 25.0 27.1 29.3 31.6 34.0 37.2 42.2 48.6 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 69.4 68.1 66.8 65.7 64.5 64.7 66.5 68.9 71.0 70.2 68.2 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 15 17 20 31 27 23 HEAT CONTENT 69 82 66 32 15 3 5 15 0 33 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 25. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -7. -16. -25. -32. -39. -53. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 4. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 2. -3. -14. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.7 70.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 31 31 29 29 30 27 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 29 27 27 28 25 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 24 22 22 23 20 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT