* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 10/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 29 26 23 25 23 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 29 26 23 25 23 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 43 44 43 38 33 40 36 42 43 39 27 45 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 7 8 4 2 -2 -2 -5 0 2 -11 SHEAR DIR 268 272 270 265 253 241 224 241 242 250 245 228 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.3 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.5 24.0 13.2 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 162 160 142 129 129 126 122 102 73 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 150 153 151 129 115 114 112 108 91 71 69 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.3 -56.6 -57.0 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 70 72 75 73 63 56 46 46 67 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 13 15 15 13 13 16 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 65 71 61 61 69 63 34 12 15 7 138 169 95 200 MB DIV 61 48 51 62 71 70 106 64 85 24 105 136 122 700-850 TADV 0 7 15 15 20 12 5 1 11 14 34 23 240 LAND (KM) 233 255 272 335 465 714 993 1209 973 683 344 45 -31 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.6 23.3 24.9 27.3 29.5 32.1 35.0 38.7 43.9 50.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 71.5 70.3 69.0 67.6 65.3 64.3 64.7 66.2 68.4 69.3 68.4 67.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 14 14 12 12 13 16 18 22 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 61 67 74 80 60 14 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -24. -33. -39. -45. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 7. 7. 4. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -2. 0. -2. -4. -11. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.0 72.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 10/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 68.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 10/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 10/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 29 26 23 25 23 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 28 25 22 24 22 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 24 21 18 20 18 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT