* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 54 58 65 68 73 73 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 54 58 65 68 73 73 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 46 52 57 63 68 71 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 13 8 13 8 15 7 17 20 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -2 1 -5 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 324 316 308 315 286 273 255 260 240 254 239 244 245 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 166 168 169 169 166 163 161 159 159 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 146 147 146 145 141 139 138 137 135 128 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 70 69 65 67 64 67 63 66 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 11 12 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 49 61 60 58 56 59 63 35 40 0 26 0 30 200 MB DIV 46 29 21 21 41 23 33 22 30 22 34 19 35 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -4 -2 -4 -1 1 3 6 6 0 5 LAND (KM) 55 103 145 177 214 293 401 431 381 273 104 12 -128 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 4 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 45 57 53 38 34 38 40 43 53 44 10 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -1. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 24. 28. 35. 38. 43. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 81.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.19 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 17.3% Logistic: 2.7% 17.5% 9.1% 2.3% 0.0% 6.2% 32.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 6.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 2.9% 13.5% 6.9% 0.8% 0.0% 4.9% 17.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 46 54 58 65 68 73 73 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 51 55 62 65 70 70 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 45 49 56 59 64 64 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 36 40 47 50 55 55 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT