* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 46 54 58 64 67 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 40 46 54 58 64 67 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 39 44 49 54 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 13 15 16 9 13 6 12 6 13 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -2 -5 -1 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 323 328 321 317 314 305 284 247 266 230 252 235 256 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 165 165 169 170 169 168 168 165 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 147 148 148 149 150 146 147 143 141 140 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 68 67 68 65 66 63 68 63 64 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 37 44 49 56 55 65 65 67 43 40 -11 6 -38 200 MB DIV 1 13 47 36 20 34 19 29 27 26 17 21 23 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -6 -9 -2 -5 0 3 1 8 6 5 LAND (KM) 100 100 104 111 141 217 305 372 411 364 324 273 177 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.3 26.0 26.6 27.4 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.4 81.2 82.0 83.0 84.6 86.1 87.3 88.0 88.1 87.6 86.4 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 37 37 48 44 36 49 46 41 43 54 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 29. 33. 39. 42. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.7 79.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.85 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.6% 10.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% Logistic: 3.0% 21.5% 11.2% 3.8% 0.0% 5.6% 25.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 13.4% 7.3% 3.9% 0.0% 1.9% 13.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 40 46 54 58 64 67 72 75 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 38 44 52 56 62 65 70 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 38 46 50 56 59 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 30 38 42 48 51 56 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT