* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 57 64 68 73 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 57 64 68 73 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 44 50 56 61 66 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 16 11 10 7 8 3 8 1 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 333 323 325 343 355 329 356 307 18 266 208 235 223 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 165 164 164 166 165 168 169 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 148 147 146 146 146 144 145 149 148 148 144 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 65 66 64 65 60 60 55 58 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 45 38 44 52 55 54 40 47 25 26 -19 -17 200 MB DIV 31 24 0 16 43 18 32 27 18 17 16 3 9 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -3 -1 -7 -1 0 -1 3 1 4 1 LAND (KM) 123 94 77 67 80 112 191 270 318 344 392 401 333 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 79.6 80.5 81.4 82.2 83.7 85.1 86.2 87.2 87.9 88.5 88.9 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 56 43 41 37 41 73 43 39 50 52 48 45 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 32. 39. 43. 48. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.4 78.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.9% 10.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% Logistic: 5.0% 24.6% 15.4% 6.4% 0.0% 20.5% 51.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 7.8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 3.0% Consensus: 3.5% 16.1% 9.1% 4.9% 0.0% 7.1% 23.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 57 64 68 73 76 79 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 46 54 61 65 70 73 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 49 56 60 65 68 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 40 47 51 56 59 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT