* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 54 58 64 67 71 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 54 58 64 67 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 55 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 13 13 17 18 7 10 4 5 10 10 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -6 -4 -7 0 -4 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 332 338 315 325 345 337 337 287 310 218 263 235 275 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 167 165 165 165 169 170 170 169 169 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 152 149 148 146 150 150 153 152 147 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 62 65 65 61 64 65 64 62 59 58 57 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 14 31 42 34 40 56 50 54 51 44 17 0 -22 200 MB DIV 4 26 21 0 15 20 11 19 3 19 -11 -11 -10 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -6 -7 -4 -3 -5 0 0 0 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 139 137 112 112 111 173 243 353 378 400 345 278 249 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 78.9 79.9 80.9 81.8 83.5 85.2 86.7 88.2 89.3 90.4 91.0 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 74 57 42 39 28 52 35 41 49 49 58 59 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 29. 33. 39. 42. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.4 77.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.26 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.5% 9.2% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% Logistic: 2.1% 16.1% 9.0% 2.4% 0.0% 9.5% 37.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.5% 10.7% 6.2% 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 17.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 40 46 54 58 64 67 71 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 44 52 56 62 65 69 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 47 51 57 60 64 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 39 43 49 52 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT