* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 30 36 42 48 53 58 62 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 30 36 42 48 53 58 62 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 41 45 49 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 13 14 16 12 13 7 10 2 14 11 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 317 334 339 328 330 1 332 343 306 270 266 236 265 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 167 167 165 164 167 168 168 166 165 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 151 150 147 145 148 147 146 143 141 135 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 66 65 62 66 64 66 61 61 57 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 29 40 32 41 40 43 30 41 11 0 -45 200 MB DIV 0 1 22 23 -1 39 6 25 16 15 7 7 -1 700-850 TADV -13 -4 -2 -6 -6 0 -6 1 0 1 6 0 7 LAND (KM) 149 134 122 102 99 128 190 307 423 333 228 125 56 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.3 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.0 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 77.1 78.1 79.0 79.9 80.8 82.4 83.8 85.3 86.5 87.6 88.4 89.0 89.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 73 70 56 46 42 42 63 41 47 48 42 44 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 33. 37. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 77.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.2% 10.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% Logistic: 2.0% 13.1% 6.6% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 13.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.0% 5.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.6% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 30 36 42 48 53 58 62 67 67 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 35 41 47 52 57 61 66 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 30 36 42 47 52 56 61 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 28 34 39 44 48 53 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT