* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 47 52 53 60 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 47 52 53 60 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 37 41 45 48 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 11 14 14 11 14 11 15 10 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -5 -5 -4 -7 -3 -6 -2 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 296 313 324 317 307 340 345 348 326 343 322 349 296 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 165 165 167 165 165 167 168 166 163 163 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 148 147 150 147 146 148 146 143 138 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 66 67 66 68 69 68 66 63 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 4 22 34 30 44 24 32 21 28 -4 -8 200 MB DIV 17 4 1 16 18 3 20 10 22 18 13 11 -3 700-850 TADV -15 -14 -4 -2 -7 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 179 155 132 118 93 75 107 203 313 410 375 301 251 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.8 77.6 78.4 79.2 80.9 82.4 83.9 85.2 86.4 87.0 87.5 87.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 61 73 70 63 50 42 44 65 43 47 52 48 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 22. 27. 28. 35. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.8 76.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.41 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.5% 11.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% Logistic: 1.6% 14.4% 7.0% 1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 11.0% 6.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.7% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 35 42 47 52 53 60 64 69 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 40 45 50 51 58 62 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 36 41 46 47 54 58 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 28 33 38 39 46 50 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT