* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 58 62 68 70 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 58 62 68 70 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 40 45 51 55 58 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 15 10 14 9 10 10 14 9 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -4 -6 -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 300 287 299 313 309 321 354 330 347 325 339 317 345 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 163 165 166 164 164 166 167 166 166 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 144 146 147 149 145 145 145 145 141 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 61 64 64 67 67 70 68 69 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 -5 -3 18 22 27 29 28 17 17 -8 -12 200 MB DIV 19 9 -6 -2 14 4 32 9 39 26 35 11 24 700-850 TADV -3 -13 -12 -4 -1 -8 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 182 179 151 113 98 51 53 85 171 250 326 345 295 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.0 76.7 77.6 78.3 79.9 81.2 82.6 83.9 84.9 85.5 85.6 85.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 62 70 66 61 45 43 50 66 45 40 42 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 33. 37. 43. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.6 75.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.37 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.4% 10.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% Logistic: 1.7% 12.8% 6.6% 1.5% 0.0% 5.9% 32.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 10.0% 5.8% 3.5% 0.0% 2.0% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 45 52 58 62 68 70 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 43 50 56 60 66 68 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 45 51 55 61 63 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 37 43 47 53 55 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT