* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 35 42 54 59 65 67 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 26 26 26 31 37 39 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 23 25 26 30 36 41 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 11 15 12 12 12 7 13 11 17 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 308 301 278 294 306 296 333 326 344 324 339 316 335 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 162 164 167 167 165 164 164 166 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 143 146 148 149 148 146 146 144 145 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 63 63 67 66 70 70 71 69 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 8 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 19 10 11 42 26 44 24 27 -1 3 -28 200 MB DIV 4 22 14 1 -1 28 7 18 23 48 24 20 23 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -10 -12 -5 -8 -5 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 128 108 81 44 7 -22 -51 -22 33 173 202 171 157 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.3 22.8 23.5 24.5 25.6 26.7 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.6 76.4 77.1 77.8 79.0 80.1 81.0 82.0 83.0 83.8 84.2 84.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 6 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 50 55 55 26 107 107 113 35 44 64 59 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 17. 29. 34. 40. 42. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 74.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.8% 9.6% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 12.5% 6.3% 2.1% 0.0% 3.2% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 9.2% 5.3% 3.4% 0.0% 1.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 26 26 26 31 37 39 45 47 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 25 25 25 30 36 38 44 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 22 22 22 27 33 35 41 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 15 15 15 20 26 28 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT