* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 36 44 50 58 66 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 23 24 32 37 46 52 59 65 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 23 27 29 33 37 43 49 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 11 12 13 9 11 6 5 5 11 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 283 299 288 284 294 304 307 357 307 336 327 356 325 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 163 169 170 169 169 168 168 168 165 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 150 154 157 154 151 150 151 152 149 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 63 61 64 64 67 68 71 72 72 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 18 36 33 49 48 47 43 41 41 25 -8 200 MB DIV -8 2 15 14 -3 21 14 26 21 35 28 31 15 700-850 TADV -17 -10 -4 -10 -11 -2 -7 -4 -8 -1 -4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 89 46 -2 -54 -2 89 132 147 147 55 48 215 336 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.7 22.8 24.2 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.9 76.9 77.7 78.5 79.7 80.7 81.5 82.4 83.5 84.5 85.2 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 5 4 4 6 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 53 49 20 106 24 48 53 64 69 74 73 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 25. 33. 41. 48. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.4 74.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.45 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.4% 8.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 14.7% 8.1% 3.7% 0.0% 3.8% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 9.4% 5.6% 3.6% 0.0% 1.3% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/26/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 22 23 24 32 37 46 52 59 65 72 75 18HR AGO 25 24 22 23 24 32 37 46 52 59 65 72 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 31 36 45 51 58 64 71 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 24 29 38 44 51 57 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT