* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 28 29 32 38 43 49 53 59 61 66 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 29 32 38 43 49 53 59 61 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 27 30 33 38 42 47 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 15 10 11 11 11 13 8 12 9 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 -2 -1 -1 -6 -3 -6 -3 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 267 282 297 285 280 314 315 332 317 323 282 328 296 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 161 163 167 166 165 165 167 165 162 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 145 147 149 145 141 142 147 143 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 63 63 61 63 63 67 68 69 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 0 10 22 15 22 9 33 14 18 -10 -5 200 MB DIV 9 -3 -3 9 14 -7 10 -4 25 0 40 6 35 700-850 TADV -15 -17 -9 -4 -10 -7 -8 -7 -1 -4 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 151 140 140 148 145 160 107 40 32 68 144 196 105 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 7 8 8 6 4 4 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 57 52 64 71 68 45 46 22 36 59 43 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 8. 13. 19. 23. 29. 31. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 73.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.2% 9.4% 8.2% 5.9% 7.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 3.9% 3.0% 2.0% 2.8% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/26/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 28 29 32 38 43 49 53 59 61 66 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 30 33 39 44 50 54 60 62 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 31 37 42 48 52 58 60 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 30 35 41 45 51 53 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT