* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 25 26 28 33 41 46 51 58 64 68 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 25 26 28 33 41 46 49 56 61 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 24 23 24 25 28 33 36 41 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 15 11 13 7 12 6 10 3 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 1 -2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 275 270 278 290 294 294 294 313 318 292 247 276 261 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 158 159 162 164 168 168 166 166 166 164 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 144 142 144 145 147 148 145 143 143 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 60 60 62 63 61 62 61 65 65 69 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 15 5 1 10 13 13 25 28 37 28 3 10 200 MB DIV 11 21 7 1 11 0 11 0 30 8 26 3 38 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -12 -8 -5 -10 -4 -7 -2 -7 0 -4 2 LAND (KM) 169 208 195 207 240 242 225 143 36 44 68 77 128 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 64 71 54 60 43 86 46 61 34 39 38 42 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 3. 11. 16. 21. 28. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.4 72.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.4% 10.3% 9.1% 6.9% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.0% 4.2% 3.3% 2.3% 2.9% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/25/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 25 25 26 28 33 41 46 49 56 61 66 18HR AGO 30 29 27 27 28 30 35 43 48 51 58 63 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 34 42 47 50 57 62 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 28 36 41 44 51 56 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT