* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 38 40 47 51 58 63 71 72 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 38 40 47 51 45 55 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 32 34 37 42 38 47 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 14 14 13 11 11 10 7 7 8 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 2 2 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 293 288 274 273 285 279 303 283 312 259 302 258 292 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 158 159 163 166 168 168 168 166 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 145 144 143 145 148 147 146 147 145 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 56 58 59 61 61 64 59 61 61 64 65 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 16 7 1 13 17 22 19 32 22 25 -16 200 MB DIV -11 12 25 21 6 7 5 19 0 18 -3 15 5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -9 -12 -7 -8 -4 -8 -5 -4 -6 0 0 LAND (KM) 136 177 197 193 198 225 195 172 59 -2 90 118 155 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 65 65 70 46 58 54 52 30 45 70 37 55 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 5. 12. 16. 23. 28. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.0 70.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 189.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.5% 10.3% 9.2% 6.8% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.9% 4.1% 3.2% 2.3% 3.1% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 34 38 40 47 51 45 55 62 64 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 34 38 40 47 51 45 55 62 64 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 36 38 45 49 43 53 60 62 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 32 39 43 37 47 54 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT