* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 41 44 47 55 59 64 68 72 74 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 41 44 47 55 59 54 38 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 39 42 46 52 51 37 32 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 16 13 13 10 12 8 11 8 14 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 289 301 294 284 277 290 293 292 311 289 282 263 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 156 155 158 163 166 170 170 166 164 164 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 148 144 144 145 147 150 148 145 141 140 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 62 61 64 58 58 58 62 60 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -4 0 6 -1 12 12 12 18 25 23 29 -4 200 MB DIV -19 -16 11 29 22 11 3 7 7 22 -8 24 3 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -5 -11 -12 -6 -8 -5 -5 -2 -6 1 -3 LAND (KM) 178 179 233 272 261 266 280 260 118 -11 -40 2 57 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 11 9 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 59 55 78 82 35 91 72 75 12 55 12 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 853 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 15. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.8 68.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.25 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 224.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.2% 8.6% 7.8% 0.0% 7.8% 14.7% Logistic: 1.1% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 12.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.8% 3.4% 2.7% 0.0% 2.9% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/25/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 40 41 44 47 55 59 54 38 37 38 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 44 47 55 59 54 38 37 38 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 41 44 52 56 51 35 34 35 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 37 45 49 44 28 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT