* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 43 44 45 47 49 55 59 65 67 71 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 43 44 45 47 49 55 59 53 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 41 42 45 50 56 54 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 21 15 14 14 12 11 12 10 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 2 0 0 0 -4 -4 -6 -6 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 278 288 302 290 271 292 289 311 290 317 295 308 261 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 156 155 159 162 166 170 170 168 166 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 149 147 143 143 143 146 150 148 146 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 59 61 63 65 61 61 62 67 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 10 -3 2 12 -1 8 6 27 28 35 15 20 200 MB DIV 2 -20 -12 13 22 9 15 -4 7 2 9 6 3 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -10 -5 -10 -9 -6 -5 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 166 157 162 205 244 229 272 295 256 115 -28 -45 -37 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 13 11 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 82 50 60 70 73 68 53 86 85 77 72 55 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 20 CX,CY: -16/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 884 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -9. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 15. 19. 25. 27. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.0 67.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.43 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 241.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.6% 11.2% 10.1% 7.3% 8.8% 15.9% Logistic: 2.4% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.6% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 4.8% 3.8% 2.4% 3.1% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 43 44 45 47 49 55 59 53 38 32 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 42 43 45 47 53 57 51 36 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 40 42 44 50 54 48 33 27 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 34 36 42 46 40 25 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT