* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 43 44 44 46 49 53 56 62 68 73 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 43 44 44 46 49 53 56 61 67 72 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 44 44 43 44 46 50 55 54 69 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 20 16 16 12 13 7 10 3 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 3 3 1 0 -1 -1 -5 -7 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 284 293 305 296 282 295 293 300 303 321 275 55 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 154 155 156 154 157 163 167 170 167 166 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 155 150 149 146 139 140 146 150 153 149 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 56 59 63 65 63 62 60 61 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 15 2 7 11 8 9 16 27 29 28 36 200 MB DIV 3 -1 -15 -12 8 4 12 -9 11 -1 10 0 14 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -8 -6 -5 -10 -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 54 100 103 97 144 212 207 232 224 143 5 118 229 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 14 12 7 7 8 9 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 68 50 53 29 72 68 59 81 61 76 34 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 22. 28. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 65.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 253.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.4% 11.6% 10.3% 7.2% 8.9% 16.4% Logistic: 3.3% 11.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.0% 1.1% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 10.5% 5.7% 4.1% 2.4% 3.3% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 42 43 44 44 46 49 53 56 61 67 72 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 41 43 46 50 53 58 64 69 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 38 40 43 47 50 55 61 66 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 33 36 40 43 48 54 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT