* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 44 48 54 62 70 75 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 44 48 54 62 61 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 39 46 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 16 21 22 12 12 12 11 8 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 0 4 0 0 0 -5 -3 -6 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 291 299 293 297 309 288 295 296 318 302 338 322 326 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 155 153 155 154 159 165 169 169 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 152 152 146 144 139 142 146 150 150 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 57 56 64 65 64 62 61 61 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 7 7 5 6 6 6 6 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 27 9 -5 17 0 13 6 27 32 62 55 200 MB DIV 7 -2 5 -7 -15 29 4 6 -3 14 6 26 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -7 -11 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 272 95 66 133 93 177 258 264 314 293 157 -1 100 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 13 10 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 71 66 60 47 35 79 69 56 112 76 77 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 14. 18. 24. 32. 40. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 63.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.30 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 192.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.0% 9.0% 7.4% 4.9% 7.3% 13.3% Logistic: 2.6% 6.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 3.8% 2.8% 1.6% 2.8% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 44 48 54 62 61 69 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 34 37 43 47 53 61 60 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 39 43 49 57 56 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 32 36 42 50 49 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT