* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 46 49 53 56 60 67 75 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 46 49 53 56 60 67 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 38 42 47 53 62 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 16 20 13 15 10 13 8 11 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 -1 0 3 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 278 298 309 296 305 319 291 305 294 310 328 329 324 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 152 155 154 154 154 161 167 171 170 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 149 151 152 144 138 138 145 149 153 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 53 56 58 57 61 65 67 65 63 60 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 36 20 17 18 5 0 0 8 0 8 38 45 64 200 MB DIV 28 11 -4 4 1 20 8 10 3 17 -1 25 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -8 -11 -1 -8 -2 -5 -2 -4 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 499 325 158 56 133 130 222 288 298 323 310 117 68 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 11 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 42 66 77 55 63 73 68 56 109 68 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 30. 37. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 61.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.95 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 42.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 26.2% 12.8% 10.6% 8.4% 9.0% 16.7% Logistic: 17.3% 29.9% 15.6% 17.6% 0.0% 4.7% 10.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.0% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 2.2% Consensus: 8.8% 21.7% 10.7% 9.6% 2.9% 4.8% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 40 43 46 49 53 56 60 67 75 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 39 42 45 49 52 56 63 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 37 40 44 47 51 58 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 31 35 38 42 49 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT