* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 42 46 49 54 58 63 68 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 42 46 49 54 58 63 68 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 39 42 48 55 63 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 15 17 21 12 12 9 10 6 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 1 -1 2 0 -1 -2 -7 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 273 278 300 308 296 314 298 303 299 320 304 354 334 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 151 152 155 155 158 161 166 168 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 148 150 151 150 148 143 144 143 146 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 58 60 60 65 66 66 63 63 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 31 15 14 12 -15 -1 -3 2 0 29 28 38 200 MB DIV 31 16 7 1 10 2 23 6 1 2 27 3 7 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -4 -7 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 662 567 383 201 72 145 184 321 420 435 400 347 222 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 17 17 16 13 10 9 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 67 54 47 53 64 57 60 62 61 57 15 91 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 19. 24. 28. 33. 38. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 58.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.59 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.4% 10.5% 9.0% 6.7% 7.9% 14.1% Logistic: 7.5% 18.6% 9.1% 6.8% 0.0% 4.9% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 12.7% 6.9% 5.3% 2.2% 4.4% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 42 46 49 54 58 63 68 74 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 39 43 46 51 55 60 65 71 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 33 37 40 45 49 54 59 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 29 32 37 41 46 51 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT