* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 52 54 58 63 68 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 52 54 58 63 68 74 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 39 41 43 46 51 57 64 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 15 18 12 15 2 7 6 4 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -2 -2 3 3 2 5 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 325 329 296 280 292 292 305 284 286 242 296 222 338 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 150 151 154 154 157 158 163 166 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 148 150 150 149 146 144 143 144 146 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 54 54 57 59 63 60 62 60 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 35 20 4 10 -12 7 -5 12 10 35 41 200 MB DIV 0 16 5 -7 -3 11 -3 18 -10 11 3 14 2 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 789 731 625 436 253 144 187 255 328 332 368 361 242 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 56 63 44 50 84 49 60 80 54 55 84 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 22. 24. 28. 33. 38. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 56.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 202.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 20.7% 12.2% 10.4% 7.8% 9.1% 17.4% Logistic: 7.7% 24.0% 14.5% 7.1% 0.0% 7.6% 10.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 8.9% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 17.9% 9.6% 5.9% 2.6% 5.7% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 43 46 52 54 58 63 68 74 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 42 48 50 54 59 64 70 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 37 43 45 49 54 59 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 35 37 41 46 51 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT