* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 41 43 48 48 54 58 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 41 43 48 48 54 58 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 37 42 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 12 11 17 11 16 7 11 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 3 0 4 2 2 0 0 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 314 301 316 321 279 295 271 301 312 304 306 316 279 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 148 148 150 153 151 151 151 151 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 147 147 146 146 145 140 136 133 131 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 56 54 55 56 60 61 65 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 5 6 4 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 40 34 28 7 13 -10 -3 -7 7 -6 0 200 MB DIV -2 -11 9 30 16 -14 15 -3 10 -12 6 -13 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 2 1 0 -2 -1 -7 -6 -3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1034 916 825 711 528 207 122 103 108 122 155 177 224 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 55.4 57.3 59.0 60.7 63.8 66.5 68.7 70.1 71.1 71.6 72.0 72.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 9 5 4 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 58 32 35 61 42 38 78 51 52 56 77 55 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 18. 23. 23. 29. 33. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 53.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 25.0% 14.2% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% Logistic: 6.7% 30.5% 19.1% 10.5% 0.0% 6.5% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 5.0% 19.4% 11.5% 7.1% 0.0% 2.2% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 36 41 43 48 48 54 58 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 38 40 45 45 51 55 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 36 41 41 47 51 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 28 33 33 39 43 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT