* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 44 46 48 50 55 58 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 39 44 46 48 50 55 58 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 33 35 35 36 38 42 46 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 13 10 18 11 15 11 9 7 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 6 6 5 0 7 0 1 2 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 356 304 290 306 302 274 288 275 306 268 274 275 259 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 145 147 148 149 151 154 151 151 150 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 147 147 147 147 146 145 137 135 133 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 55 55 54 56 56 58 58 60 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 6 7 5 5 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 46 40 30 11 20 1 -2 -2 13 12 10 200 MB DIV 11 -5 -8 12 29 -16 17 0 0 2 6 0 5 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 3 4 0 0 -4 -2 -7 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1172 1046 920 844 676 327 73 106 54 77 115 111 155 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.5 20.8 20.9 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.7 55.7 57.5 59.3 62.6 65.7 68.1 70.0 71.1 72.0 72.6 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 16 13 11 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 30 37 58 34 62 59 46 50 49 48 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 19. 21. 23. 25. 30. 33. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 51.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.83 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 32.9% 22.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% Logistic: 14.9% 40.7% 28.6% 17.5% 0.0% 14.6% 18.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 13.4% 5.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% Consensus: 8.8% 29.0% 18.7% 10.2% 0.2% 5.2% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 36 39 44 46 48 50 55 58 64 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 35 40 42 44 46 51 54 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 34 36 38 40 45 48 54 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 27 29 31 36 39 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT