* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 46 51 53 57 60 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 46 51 53 57 60 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 42 44 48 53 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 14 11 18 13 16 9 11 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 1 359 329 315 327 303 305 280 301 298 295 258 281 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 139 141 143 146 149 149 154 154 155 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 139 141 144 145 146 143 144 140 139 137 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 61 60 57 58 60 60 62 64 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 44 42 44 30 8 -3 -22 -2 -8 3 2 200 MB DIV 11 16 -11 -13 2 14 -8 12 6 24 0 15 3 700-850 TADV 4 0 -4 -1 0 0 3 -2 -2 -9 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1213 1178 1131 991 868 729 391 152 200 255 280 360 455 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 50.4 52.0 53.7 55.5 58.9 62.0 64.6 66.8 68.2 69.5 70.4 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 15 12 11 8 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 44 52 57 31 55 32 46 95 50 48 52 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 26. 28. 32. 35. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 48.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 18.0% 12.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% Logistic: 8.0% 29.2% 18.8% 6.6% 0.0% 12.5% 26.2% Bayesian: 1.6% 15.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% Consensus: 5.6% 20.8% 11.7% 5.8% 0.1% 4.3% 14.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 41 46 51 53 57 60 64 69 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 37 42 47 49 53 56 60 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 36 41 43 47 50 54 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 32 34 38 41 45 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT