* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 39 47 50 55 60 66 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 39 47 50 55 60 66 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 30 33 35 39 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 9 11 11 9 13 10 9 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 3 0 1 -1 1 -1 -2 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 21 9 10 326 309 344 294 326 296 319 282 282 268 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 138 139 142 148 150 151 152 153 150 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 138 139 143 148 149 147 145 141 135 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 59 58 56 60 58 61 62 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 5 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 47 49 47 42 25 13 0 -10 -8 -6 -2 200 MB DIV 21 20 22 -4 -4 9 -1 7 -3 17 21 4 -2 700-850 TADV 2 4 0 -5 -4 0 2 1 -2 0 -7 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1208 1183 1147 1064 918 711 518 213 66 183 206 276 346 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.4 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.3 51.0 52.6 54.4 57.8 61.0 63.7 66.0 67.8 68.9 69.9 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 16 15 13 11 9 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 27 50 53 47 35 40 36 65 68 46 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 27. 30. 35. 40. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 47.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 27.1% 16.2% 4.8% 0.0% 7.9% 26.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 1.2% 10.2% 5.7% 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 34 39 47 50 55 60 66 69 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 32 37 45 48 53 58 64 67 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 27 32 40 43 48 53 59 62 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT