* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 56 60 68 74 81 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 56 52 64 70 76 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 36 36 44 51 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 9 4 12 8 10 5 14 7 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 2 2 3 2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 23 17 24 27 21 355 10 347 319 324 317 308 277 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 138 139 145 149 151 152 151 152 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 135 138 139 148 149 149 147 143 139 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 62 60 61 59 58 58 58 58 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 7 5 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 55 54 50 55 53 47 32 37 16 2 -14 1 200 MB DIV 32 39 24 30 18 12 9 10 4 0 8 0 16 700-850 TADV -6 0 3 0 -4 -5 0 2 0 0 -5 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1245 1189 1144 1099 1013 690 536 442 185 -22 124 199 304 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.4 16.0 17.0 18.2 19.6 20.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.9 49.5 51.2 52.8 56.3 59.5 62.3 64.5 66.3 67.4 68.0 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 31 53 53 41 45 39 48 73 73 59 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 20. 28. 36. 40. 48. 54. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.3 46.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 28.9% 15.0% 4.1% 0.0% 3.4% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.2% 11.5% 5.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.1% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 27 34 40 48 56 52 64 70 76 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 32 38 46 54 50 62 68 74 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 28 34 42 50 46 58 64 70 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT