* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 50 58 62 70 78 83 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 50 58 62 69 77 81 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 29 34 39 39 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 10 10 5 12 6 12 10 14 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 1 2 0 0 -1 0 -6 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 29 23 27 34 36 10 26 358 11 316 330 298 293 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 136 137 143 147 151 153 152 152 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 135 137 138 146 148 152 150 148 145 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 61 61 58 58 56 57 56 56 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 52 50 51 49 48 34 42 27 15 0 -15 200 MB DIV 15 32 39 25 25 3 3 25 13 4 7 1 6 700-850 TADV -5 -5 0 2 0 -4 -3 2 -2 0 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1311 1233 1169 1110 1050 797 515 433 384 150 10 43 119 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.5 14.4 14.7 15.5 16.7 18.2 19.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 46.4 48.1 49.8 51.4 54.7 58.0 60.9 63.4 65.5 67.3 68.8 70.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 17 15 14 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 18 37 55 52 51 32 41 72 15 48 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 12. 21. 30. 38. 42. 50. 58. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 44.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 97.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 26.9% 13.5% 4.0% 0.0% 2.2% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 9.8% 4.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 50 58 62 69 77 81 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 32 41 50 58 62 69 77 81 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 37 46 54 58 65 73 77 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT