* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 43 52 61 68 74 83 88 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 34 43 52 61 68 74 83 88 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 20 22 26 30 36 42 49 58 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 11 12 10 12 10 11 8 15 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -1 -5 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 33 20 24 26 39 43 26 46 8 353 340 348 314 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 135 136 140 145 148 151 151 153 152 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 134 136 136 141 146 147 150 148 148 142 145 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 62 61 57 59 58 58 57 57 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 49 51 54 60 52 45 36 36 3 -11 -35 200 MB DIV 18 33 42 31 21 6 10 8 8 15 -2 10 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -9 -2 1 -5 -3 0 1 0 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1385 1308 1218 1141 1066 941 624 441 456 332 68 166 323 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.3 13.9 14.2 14.9 16.2 17.9 20.0 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 45.0 46.8 48.5 50.1 53.1 56.2 58.9 61.3 63.4 65.2 66.5 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 15 14 12 12 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 13 18 32 55 64 47 12 37 54 84 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 23. 32. 41. 48. 54. 63. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 43.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 34.5% 19.9% 8.4% 0.0% 8.2% 17.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.6% 12.6% 6.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.7% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 26 34 43 52 61 68 74 83 88 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 33 42 51 60 67 73 82 87 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 38 47 56 63 69 78 83 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT