* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 63 70 76 83 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 63 70 76 77 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 42 49 57 66 63 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 10 9 13 8 12 3 8 7 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 46 18 358 350 355 23 358 32 356 11 322 326 277 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 130 131 134 137 143 147 150 151 153 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 131 132 134 137 145 148 149 148 149 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 63 64 60 59 57 57 55 53 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 28 40 49 58 55 53 41 47 33 10 -12 200 MB DIV 24 29 44 53 41 30 2 19 7 20 1 1 4 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -7 -1 0 -5 -1 3 0 2 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1523 1462 1392 1306 1233 1102 842 579 480 386 133 11 115 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.9 17.0 18.6 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.7 44.4 46.1 47.8 51.1 54.4 57.7 60.5 63.0 65.2 67.1 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 11 12 14 52 49 42 49 39 66 33 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 30. 38. 45. 51. 58. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 41.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.39 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 15.5% 9.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% Logistic: 4.4% 30.2% 16.7% 5.6% 0.0% 7.9% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% Consensus: 3.2% 16.9% 9.3% 4.6% 0.0% 2.7% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 55 63 70 76 77 81 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 45 53 61 68 74 75 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 48 56 63 69 70 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 40 48 55 61 62 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT