* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 65 72 79 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 65 72 79 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 44 53 62 72 81 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 9 8 11 9 12 5 8 7 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 45 36 31 22 28 32 18 24 326 318 322 303 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 132 133 136 140 145 148 152 152 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 132 133 134 136 140 147 149 153 151 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 62 65 64 61 62 58 57 56 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 43 43 54 53 62 52 48 31 35 6 -5 200 MB DIV 26 43 45 56 73 37 -6 4 7 8 24 -8 1 700-850 TADV -1 1 -1 -5 -6 1 -4 -3 0 1 -2 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1581 1484 1399 1318 1218 1043 899 694 458 413 362 39 105 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.2 13.6 14.5 16.0 17.7 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 41.4 43.0 44.6 46.2 49.3 52.2 55.1 57.9 60.6 63.2 65.7 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 17 11 11 34 59 66 54 33 39 63 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 22. 32. 40. 47. 54. 60. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 39.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.5% 11.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% Logistic: 3.3% 22.4% 10.0% 2.3% 0.0% 1.8% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 14.9% 7.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.6% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 57 65 72 79 85 83 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 37 45 55 63 70 77 83 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 41 51 59 66 73 79 77 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 42 50 57 64 70 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT