* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 57 65 71 78 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 57 65 71 78 84 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 44 52 61 69 77 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 12 12 9 11 9 15 7 14 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 43 42 38 32 35 30 3 6 324 333 317 324 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 133 133 134 135 141 146 149 152 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 135 133 133 134 135 143 148 151 153 153 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 65 64 67 64 63 61 56 55 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 40 39 40 47 46 53 46 34 26 12 -8 200 MB DIV 13 18 43 49 57 63 22 2 3 16 12 8 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -4 0 0 -2 -1 1 -2 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1696 1592 1493 1401 1312 1126 975 847 663 486 519 172 88 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.6 14.5 15.9 17.5 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.5 41.0 42.5 43.9 46.8 49.7 52.6 55.6 58.6 61.5 64.3 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 17 19 15 17 44 62 65 44 15 44 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -6. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 22. 32. 40. 46. 53. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 38.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 96.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.6% 10.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% Logistic: 1.9% 13.4% 5.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.9% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 11.1% 5.7% 3.3% 0.0% 0.6% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/20/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 40 47 57 65 71 78 84 87 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 38 45 55 63 69 76 82 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 41 51 59 65 72 78 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 42 50 56 63 69 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT