* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 50 55 58 63 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 50 55 58 63 69 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 43 46 49 47 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 11 7 10 13 12 17 12 17 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 0 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 41 37 40 17 338 322 328 328 310 311 299 318 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 130 131 131 133 137 145 150 153 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 130 131 131 133 136 141 150 154 154 152 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 69 67 66 65 61 59 56 55 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 31 23 23 31 45 55 45 39 31 31 22 200 MB DIV 10 4 13 37 44 54 42 11 10 13 -1 8 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 2 1 0 3 -2 -1 0 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 1905 1821 1752 1678 1590 1429 1245 1119 838 676 309 0 4 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.1 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.4 37.4 38.6 40.0 43.2 47.0 50.9 55.1 59.1 62.9 66.3 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 18 19 20 21 19 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 26 13 12 13 40 36 59 27 16 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 38. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 35.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.3% 10.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% Logistic: 1.7% 12.0% 5.2% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 11.2% 5.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.4% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 50 55 58 63 69 72 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 42 49 54 57 62 68 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 44 49 52 57 63 66 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 36 41 44 49 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT