* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 55 63 69 75 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 55 63 69 75 84 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 41 49 57 65 74 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 9 8 9 8 14 7 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 46 37 38 40 37 5 360 19 353 2 338 351 307 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 130 132 132 132 135 137 143 147 152 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 130 133 133 134 138 139 148 150 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 67 69 65 67 65 61 60 58 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 34 33 32 35 49 53 57 49 41 42 28 200 MB DIV 5 5 11 25 60 58 64 14 5 21 22 24 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1912 1860 1758 1662 1559 1370 1153 991 841 537 409 430 177 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.8 36.1 37.4 38.7 40.2 43.3 46.8 50.2 53.8 57.2 60.2 62.9 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 19 27 13 12 16 42 62 51 54 42 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 30. 38. 44. 50. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 34.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.3% 10.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% Logistic: 1.6% 10.2% 4.6% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 10.0% 5.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.4% 8.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 55 63 69 75 84 87 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 37 45 54 62 68 74 83 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 32 40 49 57 63 69 78 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 32 41 49 55 61 70 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT