* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 46 54 62 69 77 89 95 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 46 54 62 69 77 89 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 35 40 48 55 63 73 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 14 11 9 7 10 7 17 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 40 40 33 38 29 12 320 322 318 336 30 354 328 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 135 132 131 132 132 135 139 146 150 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 135 131 131 135 134 140 145 151 152 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 70 71 69 68 65 60 58 56 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 12 13 15 15 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 48 42 35 30 43 51 61 64 64 69 50 200 MB DIV 21 12 18 22 33 50 68 36 6 29 23 18 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -3 -2 1 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1778 1897 1881 1801 1722 1558 1387 1204 1061 699 459 455 330 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.8 13.0 14.0 14.7 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 34.5 35.5 36.5 37.6 40.3 43.7 47.6 51.8 56.1 59.6 62.2 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 13 16 18 21 21 19 15 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 15 17 20 12 11 14 48 39 48 45 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 29. 37. 44. 52. 64. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 33.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.5% 10.9% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% Logistic: 2.0% 10.5% 4.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.8% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.8% 5.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.3% 6.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 32 39 46 54 62 69 77 89 95 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 45 53 61 68 76 88 94 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 40 48 56 63 71 83 89 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 40 48 55 63 75 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT