* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 33 41 51 59 67 75 83 92 100 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 33 41 51 59 67 75 83 92 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 43 52 63 72 82 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 11 4 4 5 12 13 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 46 42 45 45 38 20 6 282 315 310 355 23 4 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.5 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 135 134 135 134 134 136 142 147 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 138 134 132 134 135 139 142 150 152 152 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 69 69 67 69 67 64 61 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 13 14 15 17 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 36 42 50 56 51 36 39 55 60 72 59 65 67 200 MB DIV 11 18 24 18 25 57 52 63 29 25 36 45 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1691 1847 1892 1794 1728 1596 1456 1294 1105 944 571 302 315 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.6 11.4 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.3 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.9 35.1 36.1 36.9 38.7 41.1 44.3 48.4 52.7 56.8 59.9 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 11 9 9 11 14 18 20 21 18 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 13 15 17 31 10 12 19 54 55 48 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 8. 16. 26. 34. 42. 50. 58. 67. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 32.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.71 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.6% 10.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5% Logistic: 2.3% 10.8% 5.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.7% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 9.4% 5.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.2% 6.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 31 33 41 51 59 67 75 83 92 100 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 40 50 58 66 74 82 91 99 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 35 45 53 61 69 77 86 94 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 35 43 51 59 67 76 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT