* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 34 42 51 59 66 74 83 94 102 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 34 42 51 59 66 74 83 94 102 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 51 60 68 77 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 17 16 11 6 2 3 3 13 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 38 47 44 40 48 30 5 293 252 217 340 28 10 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.4 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 137 135 134 134 134 135 138 145 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 142 137 133 132 134 137 141 145 152 146 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 70 69 68 68 68 68 64 60 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 16 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 43 52 59 50 44 58 66 88 78 77 72 200 MB DIV 19 19 31 34 15 34 36 50 55 30 30 33 53 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 -2 2 0 -2 -3 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1543 1722 1875 1867 1782 1674 1562 1407 1225 1019 751 430 328 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.3 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.9 13.1 14.0 14.2 13.6 12.6 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.7 34.1 35.2 36.1 37.5 39.4 42.3 46.1 50.5 54.7 57.5 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 10 8 9 13 17 21 22 19 10 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 15 15 16 17 21 9 11 44 59 53 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 9. 17. 26. 34. 41. 49. 58. 69. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 31.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.47 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.79 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.7% 10.2% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% Logistic: 2.8% 10.7% 5.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 9.6% 5.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.2% 5.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 34 42 51 59 66 74 83 94 102 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 41 50 58 65 73 82 93 101 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 45 53 60 68 77 88 96 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 36 44 51 59 68 79 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT