* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 33 42 51 58 64 73 83 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 33 42 51 58 64 73 83 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 44 52 60 70 82 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 10 8 9 5 4 4 7 8 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 33 41 43 26 51 357 285 204 71 33 22 12 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.9 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 137 138 138 134 130 130 136 140 152 155 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 137 138 137 136 133 136 142 146 158 152 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 73 73 70 67 64 66 62 61 63 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 41 41 41 40 36 44 70 78 88 87 77 200 MB DIV 6 -5 7 26 27 35 62 39 44 19 52 39 45 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -1 LAND (KM) 1266 1402 1515 1615 1713 1908 1769 1489 1193 900 672 449 418 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.9 13.2 14.0 14.0 13.2 11.8 10.8 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 29.7 30.8 31.8 32.8 34.9 38.0 42.2 46.6 50.9 54.1 56.1 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 14 19 21 22 19 15 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 23 19 17 19 21 9 14 45 52 41 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 26. 33. 39. 48. 58. 68. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 28.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.86 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.6% 11.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% Logistic: 2.2% 9.3% 4.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.8% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.8% 9.4% 5.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.3% 6.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 33 42 51 58 64 73 83 93 98 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 41 50 57 63 72 82 92 97 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 36 45 52 58 67 77 87 92 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 36 43 49 58 68 78 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT