* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 61 63 66 74 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 61 63 66 74 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 47 52 55 57 60 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 15 13 13 12 14 10 10 14 12 12 4 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 2 0 0 -1 1 2 0 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 51 34 48 56 61 19 11 307 279 251 190 96 107 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.1 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 132 133 134 138 134 129 131 137 142 154 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 133 131 129 130 139 136 132 136 146 151 162 159 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 8 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 77 75 71 72 72 69 66 64 62 63 59 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 43 40 38 41 42 31 45 63 77 84 76 200 MB DIV 25 7 -3 10 17 23 18 31 50 42 40 42 67 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 1 1 -3 -3 1 3 6 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 1134 1284 1394 1479 1540 1681 1904 1749 1468 1148 878 579 347 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.2 10.9 12.1 13.3 14.0 13.9 13.3 11.9 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 28.5 29.5 30.3 30.9 32.5 34.9 38.3 42.5 47.2 51.8 55.6 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 7 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 16 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 22 23 21 17 18 21 9 17 54 45 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 32. 36. 38. 41. 49. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 27.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 57 61 63 66 74 80 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 48 54 58 60 63 71 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 42 48 52 54 57 65 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 39 43 45 48 56 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT