* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992016 08/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 50 57 60 61 63 67 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 50 57 60 61 63 67 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 41 48 53 56 58 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 8 11 12 7 9 6 9 12 5 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 81 46 47 52 26 9 3 270 271 271 226 67 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 132 133 134 138 136 130 132 135 139 147 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 129 130 131 139 138 133 136 141 146 155 160 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 72 73 76 73 71 71 67 66 61 66 62 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 23 30 33 29 31 31 27 22 46 58 62 57 200 MB DIV 22 34 15 4 11 6 -5 24 23 41 42 49 29 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 3 2 1 -2 0 3 3 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1173 1252 1339 1433 1512 1681 1894 1756 1500 1225 971 766 411 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.6 11.6 12.7 13.5 13.7 13.5 12.8 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.5 29.2 30.0 30.7 32.4 34.7 37.8 41.5 45.7 50.0 54.0 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 11 14 17 19 21 21 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 19 25 23 17 18 20 8 10 38 60 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 25. 32. 35. 36. 38. 42. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 27.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992016 INVEST 08/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.28 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.9% 10.7% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 999.0% 11.2% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 1.9% 4.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.1% 999.0% 10.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992016 INVEST 08/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 36 43 50 57 60 61 63 67 73 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 39 46 53 56 57 59 63 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 40 47 50 51 53 57 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 39 42 43 45 49 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT