* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 71 81 91 95 96 89 92 93 96 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 71 81 67 43 33 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 47 57 52 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 9 9 6 2 6 6 8 9 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 271 261 208 214 227 247 103 144 110 108 54 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 28.9 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 151 152 154 161 149 143 148 144 141 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 143 142 143 147 156 143 136 140 134 131 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 64 63 62 63 62 66 67 72 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 16 18 21 24 28 29 27 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 65 80 71 70 78 79 103 121 152 148 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 29 44 53 63 72 66 89 74 70 75 80 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 343 355 357 351 356 345 380 247 76 -31 -70 -58 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 66 64 63 64 66 55 36 26 29 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 22. 19. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 46. 56. 66. 70. 71. 64. 67. 68. 71. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 73.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 17.5% 12.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 24.2% 14.6% 7.4% 2.3% 11.6% 26.6% 35.4% Bayesian: 2.5% 7.7% 4.9% 1.0% 1.2% 3.5% 4.0% 18.6% Consensus: 4.8% 16.5% 10.7% 5.8% 1.2% 5.0% 14.7% 18.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/13/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 71 81 67 43 33 29 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 44 54 68 78 64 40 30 26 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 48 62 72 58 34 24 20 19 18 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 38 52 62 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT