* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 53 65 75 82 86 91 90 94 96 98 98 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 44 53 65 75 82 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 42 51 61 44 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 5 10 8 9 3 5 2 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 252 266 231 200 221 202 40 121 146 69 61 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 151 156 160 144 146 146 143 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 145 145 143 143 150 155 138 138 137 135 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 8 6 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 65 63 64 63 67 69 74 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 15 16 19 22 23 23 25 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 60 78 88 74 75 78 91 107 138 158 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 22 35 54 58 52 70 60 84 44 65 72 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 0 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 311 336 358 376 366 363 352 387 172 14 -51 -76 -154 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 66 64 62 60 65 62 52 26 32 33 30 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 13. 14. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 40. 50. 57. 61. 66. 65. 69. 71. 73. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 73.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.5% 14.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 15.2% 8.5% 4.5% 1.3% 9.2% 18.6% 36.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 1.8% 3.0% 7.4% Consensus: 3.7% 13.4% 8.2% 5.2% 0.5% 3.7% 11.6% 14.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 36 44 53 65 75 82 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 42 51 63 73 80 51 35 28 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 45 57 67 74 45 29 22 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 36 48 58 65 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT