* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 46 58 69 77 82 89 91 88 86 87 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 37 46 58 69 77 82 61 43 33 29 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 51 59 50 38 31 28 32 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 10 8 12 6 3 5 9 8 9 5 5 8 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 0 7 SHEAR DIR 289 252 261 264 238 215 242 263 118 166 142 143 100 143 57 71 100 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.4 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 151 152 152 153 161 153 141 142 143 144 143 136 129 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 143 142 143 143 147 156 147 134 134 133 134 136 131 126 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 61 61 59 59 59 63 63 68 68 72 69 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 10 10 11 13 15 17 20 22 25 24 19 13 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 47 53 66 85 71 78 76 101 91 129 139 142 123 98 73 200 MB DIV 30 -11 1 7 29 56 74 86 81 67 51 56 69 35 19 51 18 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 2 1 2 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 242 278 320 317 325 323 302 318 301 126 52 -10 -45 -102 -100 83 265 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 7 5 6 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 64 65 67 66 67 67 72 59 48 26 31 34 32 27 9 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 12. 4. -3. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 21. 33. 44. 52. 57. 64. 66. 63. 61. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 72.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 18.2% 13.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 17.6% 10.6% 5.1% 1.9% 12.7% 19.7% 25.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 8.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2.0% 3.2% 4.9% Consensus: 4.0% 14.9% 8.9% 5.4% 0.8% 4.9% 11.8% 10.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 37 46 58 69 77 82 61 43 33 29 32 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 44 56 67 75 80 59 41 31 27 30 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 40 52 63 71 76 55 37 27 23 26 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 44 55 63 68 47 29 19 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT