* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 44 53 65 72 79 84 88 87 84 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 44 53 65 72 79 84 88 67 41 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 38 44 52 60 64 53 36 30 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 11 8 15 11 8 2 10 6 7 9 5 4 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -1 2 0 3 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 277 250 259 248 198 229 211 160 154 167 145 145 151 99 75 79 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.1 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 153 152 152 160 153 142 140 146 144 143 131 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 143 143 143 145 146 146 154 147 134 132 138 137 137 126 115 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 8 6 6 4 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 65 63 62 62 62 59 60 59 65 69 72 73 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 12 16 18 21 23 25 22 16 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 51 51 55 82 84 70 72 79 89 96 126 131 127 111 85 200 MB DIV 20 17 -7 10 17 39 62 80 85 88 66 59 65 77 35 34 20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 0 2 4 6 3 -4 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 259 245 261 287 317 345 368 335 323 318 178 94 38 -22 -123 -12 171 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.5 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.6 71.3 71.9 72.4 72.9 73.9 75.3 76.9 78.5 80.3 82.1 83.7 85.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 63 63 67 70 70 65 60 69 60 52 32 34 41 30 16 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 10. 2. -4. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 19. 28. 40. 47. 54. 59. 63. 62. 59. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 70.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.6% 12.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 21.9% 11.6% 3.9% 1.9% 11.3% 24.8% 46.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 10.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% 2.4% 7.0% Consensus: 3.5% 16.6% 8.5% 4.5% 0.8% 4.1% 13.1% 17.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 35 44 53 65 72 79 84 88 67 41 32 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 42 51 63 70 77 82 86 65 39 30 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 38 47 59 66 73 78 82 61 35 26 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 31 40 52 59 66 71 75 54 28 19 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT