* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 40 50 58 65 76 81 85 89 85 82 81 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 40 50 58 65 76 81 74 44 32 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 38 46 56 63 37 30 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 13 14 13 14 7 2 5 7 8 10 5 7 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -5 -5 -3 0 1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 285 270 270 247 253 242 215 215 185 112 135 154 143 76 106 66 121 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 151 153 154 153 154 152 154 155 145 143 141 145 139 133 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 141 142 144 143 146 145 148 149 139 134 134 138 132 125 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 65 61 58 57 57 57 61 63 72 73 78 79 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 11 15 17 18 23 25 27 27 21 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 54 61 56 64 87 80 67 72 96 103 130 145 179 168 158 200 MB DIV 28 35 29 9 23 25 57 77 78 64 69 58 84 80 61 62 56 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 2 2 4 0 -1 2 7 LAND (KM) 301 271 248 236 234 266 300 298 267 276 262 128 -9 -164 -182 -66 26 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.0 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.1 70.6 71.1 71.6 72.6 73.9 75.5 77.2 78.9 80.9 82.6 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 9 9 7 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 60 61 60 57 50 58 66 66 56 41 31 32 3 12 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 7. 8. 14. 16. 17. 16. 7. -0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 15. 25. 33. 41. 51. 56. 60. 64. 60. 57. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 69.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 18.0% 13.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 12.4% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 5.9% 8.2% 20.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 2.9% 11.0% 6.4% 4.2% 0.4% 2.0% 6.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 33 40 50 58 65 76 81 74 44 32 29 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 39 49 57 64 75 80 73 43 31 28 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 44 52 59 70 75 68 38 26 23 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 37 45 52 63 68 61 31 19 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT