* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 39 46 54 59 68 73 80 85 90 85 83 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 39 46 54 59 68 73 80 85 90 64 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 45 52 59 62 48 34 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 15 16 12 8 3 9 9 6 4 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 313 287 277 273 246 260 214 235 223 204 168 192 173 165 90 59 71 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.7 28.8 27.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 149 149 150 153 154 153 155 159 147 148 144 148 149 134 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 137 136 139 143 145 146 149 154 141 141 136 143 147 131 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 7 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 64 65 62 57 57 55 52 50 55 58 64 69 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 12 14 15 19 20 23 24 25 18 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 48 50 52 56 64 57 74 80 68 62 82 79 87 110 117 93 78 200 MB DIV 18 37 37 20 -2 11 45 54 67 73 53 31 52 39 28 22 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -6 -4 -5 -2 0 2 1 2 2 -3 -5 -5 2 LAND (KM) 289 296 295 262 246 211 247 259 200 126 215 310 207 94 -49 10 207 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.4 71.4 72.6 74.2 76.1 78.0 80.2 82.4 84.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 8 9 11 11 10 10 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 52 57 60 61 57 49 69 71 57 83 89 62 50 28 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 9. 10. 13. 14. 13. 4. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 21. 29. 34. 43. 48. 55. 60. 65. 60. 58. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 68.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.9% 13.7% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 24.5% 13.3% 6.4% 3.9% 12.5% 18.6% 25.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 8.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.8% 1.1% Consensus: 3.9% 17.3% 9.5% 5.8% 1.4% 4.4% 10.4% 8.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 39 46 54 59 68 73 80 85 90 64 46 40 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 36 43 51 56 65 70 77 82 87 61 43 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 37 45 50 59 64 71 76 81 55 37 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 28 36 41 50 55 62 67 72 46 28 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT