* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 38 46 53 61 70 75 82 89 91 93 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 38 46 53 61 70 75 82 89 91 93 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 33 38 45 54 64 68 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 11 12 11 13 13 16 4 4 7 7 7 15 12 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 -4 -5 -4 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 318 302 271 272 259 248 213 211 236 145 112 151 163 155 115 124 129 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 149 151 152 155 155 155 154 154 155 148 142 142 140 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 140 141 145 146 149 148 147 147 139 131 132 131 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 9 7 8 6 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 61 63 65 63 63 62 61 60 61 61 67 71 74 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 10 12 13 16 17 20 24 24 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 47 50 55 53 61 81 78 70 72 84 87 115 123 137 120 200 MB DIV 15 20 23 29 24 4 18 60 83 75 72 55 65 98 100 69 71 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 2 5 4 4 LAND (KM) 247 273 252 248 259 279 301 358 380 344 333 350 287 204 129 85 54 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.5 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.6 70.1 70.6 71.0 71.9 73.0 74.3 75.8 77.2 78.5 79.7 80.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 57 60 61 62 57 51 54 57 65 57 50 43 28 22 22 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 38. 40. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 13. 12. 12. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 21. 28. 36. 45. 50. 57. 65. 66. 68. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 69.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.2% 11.1% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 2.6% 13.8% 27.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% Consensus: 2.1% 7.5% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 1.0% 8.2% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 38 46 53 61 70 75 82 89 91 93 88 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 36 44 51 59 68 73 80 87 89 91 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 32 40 47 55 64 69 76 83 85 87 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 25 33 40 48 57 62 69 76 78 80 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT