* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 43 48 54 60 65 70 75 79 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 43 48 54 60 65 70 75 79 70 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 35 41 50 58 64 61 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 5 3 7 11 10 14 3 5 6 6 5 11 9 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -5 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 318 337 354 290 268 239 253 214 247 87 43 89 138 140 119 127 128 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 153 154 156 159 162 163 158 155 156 151 144 139 143 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 142 143 145 147 150 154 156 150 148 150 144 136 131 135 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 7 6 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 63 64 65 68 70 70 70 68 64 64 65 67 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 56 49 53 67 72 86 71 68 69 73 83 102 120 131 128 200 MB DIV 18 16 20 33 37 -4 29 52 62 90 80 84 66 77 103 134 65 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 256 243 248 281 258 196 202 264 242 295 373 378 371 251 107 -22 -68 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.1 14.8 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.4 70.1 70.6 71.0 71.4 72.2 73.0 73.9 74.8 75.8 76.8 78.1 79.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 55 61 61 64 63 58 55 53 52 53 59 59 48 37 24 26 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 23. 29. 36. 40. 45. 50. 54. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 69.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.5% 12.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 2.9% 8.0% 30.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.5% Consensus: 2.0% 7.4% 4.9% 3.5% 0.1% 1.0% 6.5% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 43 48 54 60 65 70 75 79 70 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 35 42 47 53 59 64 69 74 78 69 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 31 38 43 49 55 60 65 70 74 65 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 31 36 42 48 53 58 63 67 58 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT