* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982020 11/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 28 30 34 41 45 51 58 66 74 80 86 87 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 28 30 34 41 45 51 58 66 74 80 86 87 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 31 38 49 59 67 69 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 8 8 11 12 9 11 2 1 3 4 5 10 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 5 4 0 -4 -4 -5 3 1 0 1 2 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 305 313 327 320 285 265 247 236 220 347 49 45 178 197 162 171 187 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.0 29.3 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 150 151 152 155 157 159 158 152 151 157 147 146 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 139 140 142 143 146 147 150 150 145 146 154 142 138 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 7 5 7 7 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 64 65 66 70 68 70 71 70 66 62 61 63 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 13 16 17 20 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 52 58 54 68 69 75 77 67 61 58 67 79 105 118 123 200 MB DIV 45 26 31 25 35 18 33 46 68 88 62 68 49 56 88 58 45 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 5 3 7 0 0 LAND (KM) 245 269 274 291 278 192 151 179 232 258 309 390 333 262 137 29 -23 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.2 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.2 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.7 69.5 69.9 70.3 70.7 71.4 72.1 72.8 73.6 74.5 75.6 76.9 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 11 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 56 59 64 69 67 60 57 54 49 49 61 55 40 35 40 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 16. 20. 26. 33. 41. 49. 55. 61. 62. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 68.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.1% 13.7% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 3.3% 5.1% 28.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 2.7% 8.9% 5.7% 4.1% 0.2% 1.2% 5.6% 9.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982020 INVEST 11/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982020 INVEST 11/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 28 30 34 41 45 51 58 66 74 80 86 87 63 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 27 29 33 40 44 50 57 65 73 79 85 86 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 23 25 29 36 40 46 53 61 69 75 81 82 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 21 28 32 38 45 53 61 67 73 74 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT